A line drawn in history might as well be written in water. Yet at some point, a creek becomes a stream, a stream becomes a river, and a river becomes an ocean. Somewhere, we mark the passage of one age to the next.
Today we live in the After Age. Not all of us, not all of the time. But more and more of us, more and more of the time. If you are reading this, chances are you live in the After Age.
What is the After Age? As the name suggests, it is after something. But what? The Cold War? The Industrial Revolution? The discovery of fire?
The After Age is the age of human history after the biggest challenges to individual human life have been overcome. These are the challenges that defined our daily existence for as long as there have been humans, right up until two to three hundred years ago, when, one by one, they began to retreat in the face of our intelligence, hard work, and cooperation. These challenges include obtaining sufficient food, clothing, and shelter; preventing disease, accidents, and poor health; defending against violence and war; and freeing ourselves from social, cultural, and political oppression.
I know what you’re thinking: We aren’t “after” any of these things. Read the news, or just step out your front door, and you could probably spot several examples to the contrary. The same is likely true for your own life as well. Even if you live in the wealthiest country in the world, it’s likely some version of these troubles – lack of food, lack of security, lack of good health, lack of justice – have some effect on your life.
The After Age is not a sudden, complete change in human life. It is a gradual transition that has been taking place for hundreds of years. Although the After Age started around 1750, or even earlier, it took at least 150 years to pick up steam around the world. Today it is still at various stages in different places. Nowhere is it “complete”.
For this reason, the central idea of the After Age, that we as a species have solved the primary challenges to individual life, is still not true everywhere or for everyone, and is not completely true for anyone. The After Age is not just an era in time, or a geographic place, but a certain standard of living whose boundary, while expanding, is still blurry, uneven, and in flux from year to year, place to place, and even person to person.
This slowly emerging reality is nonetheless visible virtually everywhere on Earth. If we don’t notice it, it is only because we have taken it for granted. But we shouldn’t take it for granted. We should remember and celebrate this new world every day because it shows not only how far we have come, but how far we could go in the future.
Here are a few examples of what I am talking about:
Today is after the time when hunger and the daily struggle for survival dominated human existence. Until very recently, getting enough food to survive – and avoiding death while doing so – defined the majority of our days on Earth for all but a small, privileged few. Today, for a growing majority of humanity, anxiety about whether they will have enough to eat is not an immediate concern, if it is there at all. This is certainly not true for every human being, unfortunately. But when we look back on all of human history before today, the fact that it is true for as many of us as it is is a miracle and an important milestone.
Today is after the 40-year limit on life expectancy, unchanged for thousands of years, lifted. Starting in the 19th century, average life expectancy began to climb upwards and is now around 72 years, worldwide. It may eventually climb past 100, or more. While the increase is largely due to lower infant mortality (itself a great thing) it is also due to improvements in health care later in life and a generally higher standard of living.
Today is after the threat of violence and warfare have receded from human life. This may seem an absurd claim for anyone who follows the news of mayhem occurring around the world. But what makes the headlines has a way of obscuring larger trends in per-capita violence, which have been trending downwards. These trends cover not just war, but violence between individuals, such as domestic abuse or murder. For most of human history, the possibility of violent assault or death, while uncommon, was several times more likely than it is now, perhaps hundreds of times more likely. For a small percentage of humanity trapped in one of the remaining war zones on this planet, violent death may be a constant threat, but it is no longer for the vast majority of us. This is a long-term trend, with many ups and downs. One nuclear war would make this a moot point – but a nuclear war would make everything a moot point.
Today is after nearly every aspect of the natural world has been explored, the last “undiscovered territory” discovered, literally and figuratively. In the last 200 years, humanity has unlocked the secrets of everything from natural selection to quantum physics, from spaceflight to public sanitation. No category of knowledge has not been at least identified, and few have not been mapped extensively. True, there is still plenty more to learn. But where once science was a hidden world, today it is laid out before us like a feast. This knowledge has unlocked amazing powers that allow us to live far more pleasant and empowered lives than our ancestors.
Today is after the establishment of the rule of law, not men, as the source of political power in most lives. From one democracy in the late 18th century (the United States of America), the world now boasts 118, 60% of all nations. Much has been made of a recent downward trend in the number and quality of democracies, but step back even just a little and that negative trend looks mild in the context of the enormous spread of democracy, and more importantly, the rule of law. The focus on whether certain nations are or are not “democratic” ignores the fact that even non-democracies are behaving better towards their people. Torture, imprisonment and execution without trial, arbitrary justice and governmental coercion have all become less common everywhere. Today, even non-democracies recognize the rule of law as the best way to establish a stable and prosperous order, even if they cannot or will not practice it all the time.
The last 100 years or so have seen a steady spread of these improvements from their start in northern Europe to every corner of the world. Poverty persists, but fewer people live in absolute poverty every day, however it is defined. Living standards and life expectancy are up, violence and disease are down. The trends are unmistakable. To refuse to acknowledge them would be just as short-sighted as it would be if things were headed in the opposite direction.
I am not saying that hunger, poor health, war, oppression or any other plague of humankind no longer exists. Nor am I saying they will ever disappear completely. But the retreat of these demons over the last 200 years or so was and is so dramatic, so unmistakable, that it marks a turning point in human history and the beginning of something new. Whether we call this new era “the After Age”, or something else (or don’t give it a name at all), it’s here. We must recognize that fact, how it affects us, and what, if anything, it means for how we live now and ought to on into the future.
When I state, as I do in the title of this book, that “we are going to be OK” it is because of the facts I have just laid before you, and many, many more like them. They are evidence that human life can improve, because it has improved. And not just a little. A lot. This progress has soldiered on through economic upheavals, wars, revolutions (and pandemics!) – the entire rollercoaster of the last 200-300 years of history. We are going to be OK because, by any reasonable comparison to the past, we already are OK, and with each passing year more and more of us are even more OK.
Remember, “OK” is a relative term. One person’s OK is another person’s miserable, and a third person’s great. But when the conditions in which we live are steadily improving, on average, over time – which is objectively true – then it stands to reason that, whatever the standard of OKness, it must be being achieved by more and more of us every day.
Of course, our standards go up, too. What was once a miracle, like air travel or a vaccine for polio, becomes everyday and is taken for granted. I chose the word OK to describe the baseline standard of living in the After Age because it reflects the reality of our dissatisfaction with life, however good it is. OK is not bad, but it’s not great, either. Life may be merely OK because of some real hardship, or it may be merely OK because it is the human condition to constantly want what we do not have. Probably both.
But while OK is not great, it is also not bad, and it is certainly not bad and getting worse. And yet that is exactly what so many believe. They believe, or just assume, we are headed towards disaster, or we are already there. They may come to this conclusion for scientific, political, or religious reasons. Or because of a specific fear: of global warming, immigration, terrorism, capitalism, socialism, religious extremism, secular immorality, nuclear war, ethnic strife, political corruption, artificial intelligence, asteroids, or a million others. Their fear may be of something that just happened yesterday, or might happen a hundred years from now. You may be one of these people. I will admit to occasionally feeling that way myself.
That is why stepping back and getting some perspective is so important. Yes, there are serious flaws with the way the world works today. Injustice, stupidity, greed, violence, and cruelty run rampant, ruining lives and creating human-made tragedies on a daily basis. Natural disasters of all kinds create their own tragedies on top of the ones we inflict on ourselves. And yes, we do have the power to extinguish all life on Earth, at least theoretically. And no, not everyone enjoys the same level of security, freedom and prosperity that I do. Not even close. (Which is the number one reason I wrote this book.)
But if these eternal flaws in human nature were truly as damning as we fear, nothing good would have ever been accomplished. Yet instead, human life has – on average – steadily improved. There is, in other words, a disconnect between what we fear is happening, and what is really happening.
The disconnect is understandable. We are all absorbed in our own lives and our own problems, both petty and profound, and usually it’s hard for us to see the difference between the two. Big historical trends, even if they absolutely have an impact on the quality of our lives, are just so much background noise.
Furthermore, when a threat or crisis does appear, like climate change, Covid-19, or some political controversy, our awareness of the world shrinks to focus on it at the expense of everything else. We become incapable of seeing past this frightening thing looming ahead of us. We forget that human civilization has endured much worse and yet continued its relentless rise upwards. I am not denying disasters. Certainly, disasters happen. But disasters are not the same as Armageddon.
Some people argue that we were happier in the past, or less stressed, or less lonely, or some other quality that is very difficult to measure accurately. The fact that it is so hard to measure these things makes them very convenient arguments for those whose ideologies or temperament rely on their pessimism.
Such wistful speculation about the past also beckons to us when we are unhappy with the way the world, or our lives, are going now. “Surely they didn’t have these problems in the good old days, when life was simpler.” Maybe they did not have exactly the same problems, but they had problems – and they were most likely worse.
Others argue that progress has created new dangers, like bioterrorism or artificial intelligence, that will destroy us. Maybe (I doubt it), but that does not negate the fact of progress. Yes, nuclear weapons might end civilization, but until that day life has and will continue to improve. One is a possibility, the other is reality.
Knowing the difference between what might happen in the future and what is happening now is very important. There are so many horrible things that might happen. We shouldn’t ignore them. But the “mights” have a way of crowding out what is. And what is is good. Or at least OK and getting better all the time, which, in the grand scheme of things, is pretty darn good.
And yes, I will admit some things are worse about life today than in the past. Pollution, perhaps. Our relative lack of community, perhaps. Our disconnection from, and destruction of, nature. The way technology is creeping into our humanity. There’s more. But I will not condemn the present in favor of the past because of its flaws. If the amazing progress of the After Age has shown us anything, it is that we can solve those, too.
At this point, I want to address a couple of specific objections I can imagine you might have. One is about you and the other is about me. The first is, “Yeah, that’s great humanity is doing well, but my life is not.” And the second is, “You are biased. You think things are going great because of who you are, not because that’s how things actually are.”
Let me talk about you first. Every argument I’ve made so far is about all of us, on average. I do not know the substance of your life. I do not know if it is secure, comfortable, or healthy. It may not be any of those things. It may be all of them and yet not a happy one. Or your suffering may not be for yourself but for someone you love or care about.
I cannot grant you or anyone else happiness merely by showing that the world as a whole is doing better than you thought. The progress of humanity is indifferent to our individual lives and fates. In that sense, we are all just statistics.
But there are a couple of things I want you to consider. First, for every problem you or I have today, there is a version of it that is much worse, which, had we been born just a handful of generations earlier, might have been our fate. Some suffering is timeless, but for everything else, we human beings have come up with a pretty good fix, or are at work on one.
Second, the fate of the world and your own are connected. I don’t mean the plain fact that if the world has no future you don’t either. I mean they are connected because if the world is improving, then there is good reason to believe that improvement will make its way to you, sooner or later. Humanity has shown a marvelous ability to solve, or at least reduce, the stuff we don’t like, whether it’s child abuse or dandruff. The unique problems you, and all of us, might be experiencing today, whether they are as intimate as digital loneliness or as global as climate change, can be conquered by humanity. We’ve beaten worse.
Third, simply believing the world has a bright future brightens your present. This is an odd idea and not something we often consider in our me-centered world. But think of it this way: What if you knew for certain humanity will overcome whatever challenges we face today? That whatever the circumstances of your life, it is part of a story of success that started before you were born, and will continue far, far into the future? How would that affect you today? Could it not ease some of the burdens of fear, anxiety, anger, sadness, and need that all of us – rich and poor, healthy and sick, secure and insecure – feel simply by being alive? Certainly not all of it, but at a bare minimum, it would be a nice thing to remember when things aren’t going well for you or me. As I said in the introduction, I did not write this book just for you, I wrote this book for all of us. Thinking of yourself as part of “all of us” is, ironically, how you individually can get the most from this book.
Now for your second objection: Who am I to say everything is so great? Well, first, I do not think everything is great. I think everything is OK. There’s a big difference. (Great comes later.)
But if you are questioning whether I might be biased, you are correct: I am biased. Very biased. I am a citizen of the United States, and I enjoy the freedoms and privileges that status affords me. Even in one of the wealthiest countries in the world, my wealth is above average. I am white, male, and well-educated. I have no physical handicaps, I suffer from no chronic diseases. I have not personally experienced war, poverty, serious violence or abuse, starvation, meaningful discrimination, or any of the other ills I’ve already mentioned.
We are all stuck in our own experience of the world. Mine is different from yours, and everyone else on Earth. I know my optimism is as much a product of my personal experience as it is the reflection of some fundamental truth. If my life had been a harder one, or just different, there’s a decent chance I would not agree with any of this. I’d like to think I still would, but I know that is not how our minds work.
I will talk more about this dilemma in the next chapter, because it is central to the rest of this book. But for now let me simply acknowledge my biased point of view, while referring you to the facts I have recited above. Whoever I may or may not be has no bearing on these facts. These include increased wealth, health, peace, freedom, and so on, that human beings have achieved, on average, over time, for hundreds of years now.
In other words, you could argue that I am just lucky, and you would be right, but that is precisely my point: In every way it is possible to measure, lucky people like me are more and more common. I don’t just want to be more common though, I want to be average. Actually, I’d love to be below average. I want everyone to enjoy the same benefits of the After Age I have, only more. And I think we can pull it off.
In the last 200 years, human life has turned a corner. It has broken free from circumstances that trapped us in the same mode of life for thousands of years, and has begun to move towards a future that is very different. To me, it is clear that this future will be much better than the past, because it already is. But I will admit that it also scares me sometimes. We don’t know where we are headed, except that it will be different from where we came. That is scary.
That is why accepting the good news about the present is so important, because it strengthens your optimism about the future. Optimism is not knowing what will happen, but believing that whatever does happen, we can deal with it. I cannot give you 100% certainty that our collective future will be great, or even that it will last beyond tomorrow. There are no guarantees. But I hope I’ve given you reason to believe it can be. You will have to come to your own conclusions.
Many books about how to change the world start with the assumption that something is fatally flawed with the world as it is now. That is not this book. The world is flawed for sure, but not fatally so. I think we are going to be OK regardless of what I or anyone else does. It isn’t guaranteed, but it’s very likely. I also think that, given our history as a species, OK is pretty good.
However, I promised to explain how we could be not just OK, but great. What do I mean by great? I mean expanding the benefits of the After Age to everyone alive, and then going further. Continuing the trends of greater health, wealth, justice, and freedom, and less violence, oppression, and poverty as far as we can reasonably take them. Solving the very real problems introduced in the After Age and undoing the damage we have caused to our planet and ourselves along the way. Securing our future from existential threats. And then…who knows?
But we are not there yet. Far from it. In fact, the immediate future is likely to be one of increasing turmoil. Life will continue to improve for us as individuals, on average, over time, in all the ways I have just described. But this is likely to be overshadowed by the heartache those same improvements cause in our societies as a whole.
All the money in the world, not to mention all the good health, freedom, and anything else you might value, does not matter if the world around you is a mess. If our societies cannot adapt to the After Age, then no one gets to fully enjoy it. How can we as individuals help our societies deal with the pressure the After Age brings so that we might all pursue greatness? That is what the rest of this book is about.